Dr. Andreas Juon
Researcher in Conflict & Security | Data Analytics | Consulting
I study how identity politics and institutional design shape conflict, democratic stability, and geopolitical risk. Using original cross-national data and quantitative analytics, I evaluate policies such as power-sharing and regional autonomy and their unintended effects. I also advise governments and organizations seeking evidence-based insights into political and security risk.
Recent Updates▾
2026-04-25Unfulfilled aspirations appears online in Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy article appears online in Journal of Conflict Resolution. I examine under which conditions regional autonomy defuses separatist conflicts and when it instead fuels separatist mobilization, arguing that the effectiveness of autonomy depends critically on how closely regional boundaries align with ethnic settlement patterns. Using new time-varying spatial data covering administrative boundaries in 180 countries between 1945 and 2018 — over 8,000 geocoded polygons — I find that only unified ethnic autonomy, where a minority governs a single demographically homogeneous region, consistently dampens separatist mobilization, while fragmented and non-ethnic autonomy often fail to address groups' aspirations or can even generate new grievances. The analysis covers 588 ethnic groups in 132 multiethnic states, making it one of the most comprehensive quantitative assessments of the relationship between autonomy and separatism to date.2026-03-01Ethnic accommodation and the backlash from dominant groups published in Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy article is published in Journal of Conflict Resolution (March 2026 issue). Drawing on new global data, I offer a cross-national quantitative analysis of when different types of ethnic accommodation — power-sharing, autonomy, and multiculturalism — engender a majoritarian backlash from dominant ethnic groups. I distinguish between group-based concessions (ethnically targeted institutions and autonomy) and group-blind ones, finding that the former more reliably trigger non-institutional mobilisation by dominant groups, with implications for the design of inclusive institutions in diverse societies.2026-01-01Terminating the war, losing the peace? forthcoming with Cambridge University PressMy book "Terminating the war, losing the peace? Constitutional power-sharing and its discontents" is forthcoming with Cambridge University Press. The monograph develops theory and cross-national analysis on the impact of constitutional power-sharing on peace, democracy, and the legitimacy of the political system, synthesising over a decade of my research on power-sharing institutions in divided societies.2026-01-01Unfulfilled aspirations forthcoming in Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy article "Unfulfilled aspirations: Autonomy, regional boundaries, and self-determination conflicts" is forthcoming in Journal of Conflict Resolution. My paper presents new spatial data and systematic analysis showing how aligning administrative boundaries with ethnic settlement patterns can sustainably reduce separatist conflict in multiethnic states.2026-01-01Dominant nationalism and civil war conditionally accepted at Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy co-authored article with Lars-Erik Cederman, "Dominant nationalism and civil war," has received a conditional acceptance at Journal of Conflict Resolution. My paper presents new data and systematic analysis on how dominant nationalism — ideologies seeking ethnic political supremacy — drives civil war through exclusion, repression, and reactive separatist mobilization.2026-01-01The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics forthcoming in International SecurityMy co-authored article with Lars-Erik Cederman, Paola Galano Toro, Luc Girardin, and Julian Wucherpfenig, "The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Conflict," is forthcoming in International Security. My paper presents new data and systematic analysis showing how rising ethnic exclusion and nationalist geopolitics — rather than great-power rivalry alone — have reversed post-Cold War declines in violent conflict.2026-01-01Dominant Nationalist Movements Database (DNM) — first version releasedReleased the first version of the Dominant Nationalist Movements (DNM) Database, developed together with Aya Abdelrahman. The dataset covers 90 multi-ethnic countries across North America, Eurasia, and Africa from 1946 to 2023, tracking nationalist movements that claim political supremacy for a specific ethnic group — their exclusionary demands against outgroups, associated parties, ideological justifications, and influence over government. DNM provides the first systematic, actor-centered data on dominant nationalism at global scale, enabling rigorous comparative research on how majority nationalist mobilization shapes civil war, interstate conflict, and democratic quality.
View all updates2025-10-20Roundtable at United Nations–ETH Zurich Forum, ZurichParticipated in a roundtable discussion entitled "Achieving the SDGs in Times of Fiscal Constraints and Increasing Nationalism" at the United Nations–ETH Zurich Forum. The roundtable examined how rising nationalist pressures and fiscal constraints complicate the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals, drawing on my research on dominant nationalism and its political consequences.
2025-09-01New course: Causes and consequences of nationalism at University of FribourgLaunched a new MA seminar on "Causes and consequences of nationalism: Eastern Europe and Beyond" at the University of Fribourg. The course examines theories and empirical evidence on the origins, spread, and political consequences of nationalist movements, with particular attention to Eastern Europe and global comparative cases.
2025-09-01Presented at APSA Annual Conference 2025: "Exclusionary Nationalism: A New Global Dataset"Presented co-authored work with Aya Abdelrahman and Lars-Erik Cederman on the new Dominant Nationalist Movements (DNM) dataset and how exclusionary nationalism drives militarized interstate conflict. The paper introduces an actor-centered dataset of governing nationalist movements globally between 1816 and 2023, and uses difference-in-differences methods to show that domestic nationalizing policies generate international spillover effects by pressuring kin states of victimized minorities to intervene.Recent Updates
2026-04-25Unfulfilled aspirations appears online in Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy article appears online in Journal of Conflict Resolution. I examine under which conditions regional autonomy defuses separatist conflicts and when it instead fuels separatist mobilization, arguing that the effectiveness of autonomy depends critically on how closely regional boundaries align with ethnic settlement patterns. Using new time-varying spatial data covering administrative boundaries in 180 countries between 1945 and 2018 — over 8,000 geocoded polygons — I find that only unified ethnic autonomy, where a minority governs a single demographically homogeneous region, consistently dampens separatist mobilization, while fragmented and non-ethnic autonomy often fail to address groups' aspirations or can even generate new grievances. The analysis covers 588 ethnic groups in 132 multiethnic states, making it one of the most comprehensive quantitative assessments of the relationship between autonomy and separatism to date.2026-03-01Ethnic accommodation and the backlash from dominant groups published in Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy article is published in Journal of Conflict Resolution (March 2026 issue). Drawing on new global data, I offer a cross-national quantitative analysis of when different types of ethnic accommodation — power-sharing, autonomy, and multiculturalism — engender a majoritarian backlash from dominant ethnic groups. I distinguish between group-based concessions (ethnically targeted institutions and autonomy) and group-blind ones, finding that the former more reliably trigger non-institutional mobilisation by dominant groups, with implications for the design of inclusive institutions in diverse societies.2026-01-01Terminating the war, losing the peace? forthcoming with Cambridge University PressMy book "Terminating the war, losing the peace? Constitutional power-sharing and its discontents" is forthcoming with Cambridge University Press. The monograph develops theory and cross-national analysis on the impact of constitutional power-sharing on peace, democracy, and the legitimacy of the political system, synthesising over a decade of my research on power-sharing institutions in divided societies.2026-01-01Unfulfilled aspirations forthcoming in Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy article "Unfulfilled aspirations: Autonomy, regional boundaries, and self-determination conflicts" is forthcoming in Journal of Conflict Resolution. My paper presents new spatial data and systematic analysis showing how aligning administrative boundaries with ethnic settlement patterns can sustainably reduce separatist conflict in multiethnic states.2026-01-01Dominant nationalism and civil war conditionally accepted at Journal of Conflict ResolutionMy co-authored article with Lars-Erik Cederman, "Dominant nationalism and civil war," has received a conditional acceptance at Journal of Conflict Resolution. My paper presents new data and systematic analysis on how dominant nationalism — ideologies seeking ethnic political supremacy — drives civil war through exclusion, repression, and reactive separatist mobilization.2026-01-01The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics forthcoming in International SecurityMy co-authored article with Lars-Erik Cederman, Paola Galano Toro, Luc Girardin, and Julian Wucherpfenig, "The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Conflict," is forthcoming in International Security. My paper presents new data and systematic analysis showing how rising ethnic exclusion and nationalist geopolitics — rather than great-power rivalry alone — have reversed post-Cold War declines in violent conflict.2026-01-01Dominant Nationalist Movements Database (DNM) — first version releasedReleased the first version of the Dominant Nationalist Movements (DNM) Database, developed together with Aya Abdelrahman. The dataset covers 90 multi-ethnic countries across North America, Eurasia, and Africa from 1946 to 2023, tracking nationalist movements that claim political supremacy for a specific ethnic group — their exclusionary demands against outgroups, associated parties, ideological justifications, and influence over government. DNM provides the first systematic, actor-centered data on dominant nationalism at global scale, enabling rigorous comparative research on how majority nationalist mobilization shapes civil war, interstate conflict, and democratic quality.
View all updates2025-10-20Roundtable at United Nations–ETH Zurich Forum, ZurichParticipated in a roundtable discussion entitled "Achieving the SDGs in Times of Fiscal Constraints and Increasing Nationalism" at the United Nations–ETH Zurich Forum. The roundtable examined how rising nationalist pressures and fiscal constraints complicate the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals, drawing on my research on dominant nationalism and its political consequences.
2025-09-01New course: Causes and consequences of nationalism at University of FribourgLaunched a new MA seminar on "Causes and consequences of nationalism: Eastern Europe and Beyond" at the University of Fribourg. The course examines theories and empirical evidence on the origins, spread, and political consequences of nationalist movements, with particular attention to Eastern Europe and global comparative cases.
2025-09-01Presented at APSA Annual Conference 2025: "Exclusionary Nationalism: A New Global Dataset"Presented co-authored work with Aya Abdelrahman and Lars-Erik Cederman on the new Dominant Nationalist Movements (DNM) dataset and how exclusionary nationalism drives militarized interstate conflict. The paper introduces an actor-centered dataset of governing nationalist movements globally between 1816 and 2023, and uses difference-in-differences methods to show that domestic nationalizing policies generate international spillover effects by pressuring kin states of victimized minorities to intervene.
