Research

My research focuses on ethnic conflict and exclusionary nationalism - two of the most urgent challenges facing the contemporary global security architecture. I employ quantitative methods and data science techniques to examine the roots of ethno-nationalist conflict, evaluate the consequences of conflict resolution strategies, and assess the impact of different types of nationalism for geopolitics, warfare, and democracy.

Research Projects

Populism, Nationalism, and ImperialismProject

Populism, Nationalism, and Imperialism

New global data and analysis of the causes of populism, nationalism, and imperialism -- on the rise again around the world -- and their consequences for geopolitics, warfare, and democracy.

nationalismpopulismimperialism
Regional autonomy and subnational majoritarianismProject

Regional autonomy and subnational majoritarianism

New spatial data and analysis of how different types of regional autonomy shape civil conflict, pitting ethno-regional groups against the state, and communal conflict, pitting such groups against each other.

regional autonomyadministrative boundariesconflict resolution
Power-Sharing InstitutionsProject

Power-Sharing Institutions

New data and analysis of the trade-offs of different types of power-sharing institutions for peace and democracy.

power-sharinginstitutionsconflict resolution

Publications

Peer-reviewed articles

The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Conflict

The Return of Nationalist Geopolitics: Liberal Backsliding and Conflict

Lars-Erik Cederman, Paola Galano Toro, Luc Girardin, Andreas Juon, Julian Wucherpfenig

Forthcoming, International Security

New data and systematic analysis on how rising ethnic exclusion and nationalist geopolitics, rather than great-power rivalry alone, have reversed post–Cold War declines in violent conflict.

Dominant nationalism and civil war

Dominant nationalism and civil war

Andreas Juon, Lars-Erik Cederman

Conditionally accepted, Journal of Conflict Resolution

New data and systematic analysis on how dominant nationalism (ideologies seeking ethnic political supremacy) drives civil war through exclusion, repression, and reactive separatist mobilization.

Ethnic accommodation and the backlash from dominant groups

Ethnic accommodation and the backlash from dominant groups

Andreas Juon

2026, Journal of Conflict Resolution

Cross-national quantitative analysis of when different types of ethnic accommodation (including power-sharing, autonomy, and multiculturalism) engender a majoritarian backlash from the dominant ethnic group.

Unfulfilled aspirations: Autonomy, regional boundaries, and self-determination conflicts

Unfulfilled aspirations: Autonomy, regional boundaries, and self-determination conflicts

Andreas Juon

2026, Journal of Conflict Resolution

New spatial data and systematic analysis show that aligning administrative boundaries with ethnic settlement patterns can sustainably reduce separatist conflict in multiethnic states.

Territorial autonomy and the trade-off between civil and communal violence

Territorial autonomy and the trade-off between civil and communal violence

Andreas Juon

2025, American Political Science Review

New geospatial data and analysis of how regional autonomy shapes ethnic violence against the state and communal violence between groups.

The long-term consequences of power-sharing for ethnic salience

The long-term consequences of power-sharing for ethnic salience

Andreas Juon

2025, Journal of Peace Research

New global standardized survey data on ethnic identification and ethnic party vote, and a cross-national quantitative analysis of how constitutional power-sharing shapes ethnic salience.

Inclusion, recognition, and inter-group comparisons: The effects of power-sharing institutions on grievances

Inclusion, recognition, and inter-group comparisons: The effects of power-sharing institutions on grievances

Andreas Juon

2023, Journal of Conflict Resolution

New global standardized and ethnically-attributed survey data and cross-national quantitative analysis of how constitutional power-sharing shapes group-level grievances and satisfaction with the government.

Say my name: The effects of ethnofederalism on communal violence

Say my name: The effects of ethnofederalism on communal violence

Andreas Juon, Livia Rohrbach

2023, Journal of Peace Research

Disaggregated, geospatial analysis of the effect of ethnic federalism on the risk of communal violence, with a focus on Ethiopia.

The wrong place at the wrong time? Territorial autonomy and conflict during regime transitions

The wrong place at the wrong time? Territorial autonomy and conflict during regime transitions

Andreas Juon, Daniel Bochsler

2023, Comparative Political Studies

Systematic analysis of whether territorial autonomy reduces or intensifies ethnic mobilization and conflict during regime transitions, drawing on global cross-national data and new fine-grained data for post-communist successor states.

The two faces of power-sharing

The two faces of power-sharing

Andreas Juon, Daniel Bochsler

2022, Journal of Peace Research

New data on constitutional power-sharing and a cross-national quantitative analysis of how its corporate and liberal subtypes affect democracy.

Power-sharing and the quality of democracy

Power-sharing and the quality of democracy

Daniel Bochsler, Andreas Juon

2021, European Political Science Review

Systematic analysis on the democratic effects of populists, depending on their ideological leaning, and differentiating between different aspects of democracy.

Authoritarian footprints in Central and Eastern Europe

Authoritarian footprints in Central and Eastern Europe

Daniel Bochsler, Andreas Juon

2020, Eastern European Politics

Systematic analysis of the state of democratic quality in Central and Eastern Europe, 2020.

Hurricane or fresh breeze? Disentangling the populist effect on the quality of democracy

Hurricane or fresh breeze? Disentangling the populist effect on the quality of democracy

Andreas Juon, Daniel Bochsler

2020, European Political Science Review

Systematic analysis of the democratic effects of populist actors, differentiated by ideological family and across multiple dimensions of democratic quality.

Minorities overlooked: Group-based power-sharing and the exclusion-amid-inclusion dilemma

Minorities overlooked: Group-based power-sharing and the exclusion-amid-inclusion dilemma

Andreas Juon

2020, International Political Science Review

New data on constitutional power-sharing and a cross-national quantitative analysis of how different types of power-sharing arrangements may include some ethnic minorities while further marginalizing others.

In progress

Nationalism, populism, and democracy

Nationalism, populism, and democracy

Andreas Juon, Daniel Bochsler

Under review

New cross-national data and systematic analysis on how dominant nationalism, distinct from populism, drives democratic backsliding by eroding liberal norms, minority inclusion, and electoral institutions.

A Place in the Sun: Nationalism, Imperialism, and Interstate Conflict

A Place in the Sun: Nationalism, Imperialism, and Interstate Conflict

Andreas Juon, Aya Abdelrahman, Lars-Erik Cederman

First draft

New global data and systematic analysis on how dominant and imperialist nationalism jointly drive interstate conflict through expansionist, hegemonic, and reactive pathways.

Backlash or Moderation? Ethnic Accommodation and the Impact of Dominant Nationalism

Backlash or Moderation? Ethnic Accommodation and the Impact of Dominant Nationalism

Aya Abdelrahman, Lars-Erik Cederman, Andreas Juon

First draft

New cross-national data and systematic analysis on whether power-sharing in divided societies provokes dominant nationalist backlash or instead moderates exclusionary mobilization, with consistent evidence for moderation.

Deep roots or shallow waters? History, ethnic demography, and the nation’s identity boundaries

Deep roots or shallow waters? History, ethnic demography, and the nation’s identity boundaries

Andreas Juon

First draft

New cross-national data and systematic analysis on how majority nationalists define the nation by selecting and justifying ethnic, linguistic, and religious identity markers under demographic and historical constraints.

Beyond Congruence: Nationalism, State Power, and the Return of Imperialism

Beyond Congruence: Nationalism, State Power, and the Return of Imperialism

Lars-Erik Cederman, Andreas Juon

In preparation

A power-based redefinition of nationalism, with cross-national evidence showing that nationalism and imperialism are compatible ideologies but form an unstable combination, as imperialist nationalist regimes face systematically higher risks of domestic and international destabilization.